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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">vgik</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник ВГИК</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Vestnik VGIK</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2074-0832</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2713-2471</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ВГИК</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">vgik-627</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ТЕЛЕВИДЕНИЕ | ЦИФРОВАЯ СРЕДА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>TELEVISION | DIGITAL ENVIRONMENT</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Моделирование эволюции медиа. Проекция развития</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Media Evolution Emulation: Development Perspectives</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бакулев</surname><given-names>Геннадий Петрович</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Bakulev</surname><given-names>Gennady P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ВГИК</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>VGIK</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>09</day><month>04</month><year>2024</year></pub-date><volume>7</volume><issue>4(26)</issue><fpage>143</fpage><lpage>150</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Бакулев Г.П., 2024</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2024</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Бакулев Г.П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Bakulev G.P.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vestnik-vgik.com/jour/article/view/627">https://www.vestnik-vgik.com/jour/article/view/627</self-uri><abstract><p>Данная статья продолжает анализ проблематики, связанной с процессами формирования модели эволюции медиа («Моделирование эволюции медиа», № 3 (25)). В ней рассматриваются подходы к созданию модели эволюции медиа в междисциплинарном контексте, включающем разные исследовательские направления. Утверждается, что средства коммуникации проходят в развитии те же стадии, что и любая технология, которые в общем виде можно представить как рождение, становление и исчезновение. Приводится несколько версий модели эволюции медиа. Раскрываются описанные в первой статье схема развития медиа (на примере интернета) по типу естественного цикла жизни и многоуровневая модель, учитывающая экономические, политические, социокультурные и другие факторы. Высказываются предположения относительно возможных маршрутов дальнейшего развития медиатехнологий.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article continues to analyse the problems associated with the processes of forming of the media evolution model (“Modeling the Media Evolution”, №3 [<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="cit25">25</xref>]). It describes the ways to create the media evolution model in the cross-disciplinary context, which includes different lines of research. It is claimed that the methods of communication undergo the same stages of improvement as any other technology, which, in general terms, can be seen as birth, formation and extinction. There is a number of versions for the media evolution model. The article expands on the models described in the original article: the media evolution model (based on the example of the internet) of a natural life cycle type, and the multilevel model, which considers the economical, political, sociocultural and other factors. There are several assumptions in relation to the potential pathways of further improvement in media technologies.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>медиа</kwd><kwd>средство коммуникации</kwd><kwd>эволюция медиа</kwd><kwd>модель эволюции медиа</kwd><kwd>моделирование</kwd><kwd>media</kwd><kwd>a communication medium</kwd><kwd>media evolution</kwd><kwd>media evolution model</kwd><kwd>emulation</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bijker, Wiebe E., Thomas P Hughes, and Trevor Pinch, eds. The Social Construc-tion of Technological Systems. 2-nd edition. MIT Press: Cambridge, MA. - 425 p.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bijker, Wiebe E., Thomas P Hughes, and Trevor Pinch, eds. The Social Construc-tion of Technological Systems. 2-nd edition. 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