vgikВестник ВГИКVestnik VGIK2074-08322713-2471ВГИКvgik-416Research ArticleКИНОБИЗНЕС | СТРАТЕГИЯ И ТАКТИКА УПРАВЛЕНИЯFILM INDUSTRY | STRATEGY AND TACTICS OF MAN AGEMENTФормула продюсерского счастья?The Formula of Producer’s Happiness?БакулевГеннадий ПетровичBakulevGennady Petrovichnoemail@neicon.ruВГИКРоссияVGIKRussian Federation20120804202444(14)103108Copyright © Бакулев Г.П., 20242024Бакулев Г.П.Bakulev G.P.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.vestnik-vgik.com/jour/article/view/416

В статье рассматриваются описанные в зарубежной научной литературе подходы к разработке модели прогнозирования коммерческого успеха фильмов. Предлагаемые классификации предикторов1 по разным основаниям позволяют составить общее представление о тенденциях и направлениях в данной области исследований. Сейчас набор переменных, на основе которых делаются предсказания, значительно расширяется: помимо традиционных предикторов вроде размера бюджета, масштаба маркетинга и рекламы, участия звезд, наград и т. п., учитываются новые, прежде всего связанные с деятельностью социальных сетей.

The article surveys the approaches to working out the model of the films’ commercial success described in literature. The suggested classifications of different predictors make it possible to form an overall idea of the tendencies in this field of research. Nowadays, the list of prognostic variables has been enlarged considerably: apart from such traditional predictors as budget, marketing and promotion scale, stars, awards, etc., there are new ones particularly connected with social networks.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.